Kofi Annan’s peace plan’s weakness inspite of Russia and China’s support

On 20th March, Russia stated that it was ready to support France’s presidential statement to UN, procuring Kofi Annan’s peace plan. Suddenly, both Russia and China who had shielded Syria by vetoing against 2 UN resolutions, have changed their alignment.

On the other hand, Kofi Annan who met Assad last month could not create immediate results. In fact, the terms and conditions of his diplomatic talk with Assad have not been made public. Well, I wonder if they would have anyways received more importance than the sudden email leads of Assad and his cosmopolitan wife. These emails storming the news media, perhaps have become a new face of ‘information propaganda war’.

Without meticulous analysis, a common man watching Syrian news is revealed that Assad has been getting guidance from Iran and his father-in-law in London to squash the rebels. Similar to it was the leaked Barbara Walter’s interview preparation when Assad was shown to learn how to give an interview infront of the American public.

Kofi Annan’s peace plan

Turning back to Kofi Annan’s peace plan, it includes 6 points like, both the sides should end violence, daily pauses for humanitarian assistance, release of political prisoners and access to journalists, freedom of assembly for protest and above all, the Syrian government and opposition should work in good faith. Well, the peace plan is a statement and not a resolution that can be legally binded. It portrays nothing but another feeble attempt from the side of West to conquer the Middle East.

‘Different dance for China and Russia’

What disturbs more is that both China and Russia are changing sides. This swift change was perhaps visible from the very time Moscow stated that it would not be granting asylum to Assad. Well, Russia cares for Tartus, its military and its arms trade. It was surprising that it was Tunisia’s president Moncef Marzouki who stated asylum for Assad, not just once but three times, eventually declining his offer. As far as China is concerned, it is anyways known for its ‘transactional diplomacy‘ which involves globe trotting all over the world with a fat checkbook in hand. Both Russia and China are quasi allies, after all, they both were communist blocs, hungry to export their revolutions, all around the world. Their security dilemma and hatred for the West has bought them closer, but how will this relationship affect Syria?

Lessons from Libya, Egypt and Tunisia

On the other hand, perhaps no one is learning from Libya. The NATO unilateralism in Libya has segmented the country between demands of federalism rising amid Benghazi and Tripoli. The Interim government has yet not pursued the war crimes. The Truth and Reconciliation commission is a farce, nothing else. Though, all TRCs have their own problems.

Like the one in South Africa only heard the grievances of 20,000 victims in the anti-aparthied struggle while others were simply forgotten. At the same time, even UN is not forcing these commissions to investigate human rights abuses.

While Egypt is now marching towards Presidential elections and Muslim Brotherhood has finally stated that they would have their own nominee, also. But the government is still ruled by the military and the parliament is just a ceremonial institution. This has made is very difficult for Egypt to obtain a $3.2 billion loan from the IMF.

Turning to Tunisia, the country seems to follow the Turkish model of democracy and rule of law, as it celebrated its Independence day from France in 1956 on 20th March. Tunisian presidents and foreign ministers are engrossed in talking about Libya, setting firms in Italy, petrol prices and welcoming Turkey’s President.

‘Syria’s revolution spills’

Also, Syria’s turmoil will not be limited to its own geopolitics. Lebanon, right now, who played the role of silent supporter for Syria, is facing the consequences. The shells fired in Syria has already started hitting the Lebanese border village of al-Qaa, where severally Syrian refugees are currently hiding. Similarly, the Libyan revolution did spill to Mali while the Egyptian to Sudan. Therefore, with the kind of geopolitical importance that Syria has, the chess board might utterly change, if its revolution gets exported.

‘Turkey and Syria: Is a military confrontation near?’

Meanwhile, in a very discreet manner, Turkey has started establishing a buffer zone at the Syrian side. 500 soldiers have already arrived to look over the current scenario and the migration of refugees. Well, this entire plan, without the knowledge or prior consent of the Damascus regime can lead to military confrontation if Turkey does not play the right cards. The entire situation puts Turkey in a very unconformable situation because it has to also seal its border from the influx of Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) along with the Syrian refugees. Right from last year August, Turkey has been conducting air strikes against the Kurdish camps in Iraq. Few leaked reports have stated that Syrian regime employs Kurdish militia to maintain control over the northern regions- a reason well enough to anger the Turkish Armed Forces.

Russian Navy and Syria’s future?

Recently, there has also been another rumour that a Russian navy has landed a tanker in Syria on its Tartus port. It involves ‘anti-terrorism’ marines to further squash the rebels.  Well, the Damascus regime has currently negated the rumour. Nevertheless, just like the ‘Friends of Syria’ meeting in Tunisia last month, the Kofi Annan Peace Plan seems to fall flat. With Damascus regime being tight lipped, its even difficult to predict the consequences. The May elections predicted by Bashar al Assad would be the next important issue to look at.

25th January Anniversary of Egypt: No room for shame in politics

‘Shame is a revolutionary sentiment’ said Karl Marx.

As 25th January approaches again and an Islamic majority Lower House runs in Egyptian Parliament, few protesters feel ashamed at the outcomes of year long spectacle.

Adopting the subtle yet concrete orientalist point of view, the New York Times has stated how the majority of Muslim Brotherhood and Salafists would harm Israel. Though, I am still awaiting the opinion piece from Thomas Friedman who has been called even more closer friend of Israel.

Gone are the days of Anwar Sadat and Mubarak when the 6-Day-War and domination for Sinai Peninsula and Suez Canal were the mere aims for the patriotic Egyptians.The fights of today are based of simple yet difficult to render, demands. Its employment, medical aid, standard of living, tourism, sanity of mind.

Max Rodenbeck called Cairo -‘the Victorious city’ which always rises from it ashes.

But then what amuses me is the involvement of ‘Shame’.

Is it because the concept of western imported bureaucracy and democracy is not being implemented in Egypt or is it because of Islamophobia?

Alex de Tocqueville states ‘It is not always when things go from bad to worse that a revolution breaks out. It often happens that when people who have out up with an oppressive rule over a long period without revolt suddenly find the government relaxing the pressure, they takes up arms against it. Thus, the social order overthrown by a revolution is always better than the one preceding it.

He also states, ” A grievance comes to appear intolerable once the possibility of removing it crosses the men’s minds.”

One can easily see the words of Frantz Fanon, the author of Wretched of the Earth coming true in the case of Egypt.

He states how when a colonial power implants its colonies and domination in the so-called-uncivilized nations of the world, a very interesting dynamics takes place. When the consciousness and revolution strikes the natives, they revolt. Most often, they start by fighting against themselves. Because, in each, they see the imprint of their colonial master and his ruthlessness. Facing this fact is having the courage of embracing one’s own reflection in the mirror.

The Egyptian Presidential elections would take place in late June. El Baradei has already withdrawn. The dramatic nuisance was more to show how he disliked SCAF and did not think that real democracy is working out.

Well, this is something similar to the case of Pakistan, too. Perhaps, we might find Imran Khan or Gilani trying  to complain with the same words by next year.

But one needs to understand that the results of the elections would not be reflected immediately. It would take time. Long time.

Let liberal and secular Islamists rule their country for sometime. Though, I have been quite critical of Muslim Brotherhood for sometime, its high time we do give them a chance.

And perhaps, obliterate the word ‘shame’ from the dictionary. No human spirit deserves it and especially after a revolution like this, the results would not let the country down.

Would Muslim Brotherhood form ‘Islamic Republic of Egypt’ ?

With Muslim Brotherhood sweeping the majority of seats in the current Egyptian elections, it makes one question if democracy has just progressed to become a choice between two unpleasant options. In terms of philosophical logic, nothing but a ‘Morton’s fork.’ Is the entire narrative of the Arab unrest just a false dilemma, reducing the entire Middle Eastern world into an unending battle of good versus the evil, or is there more to it, than what meets the eye?

‘Past of Muslim Brotherhood’

In the past 20 years, around 45,000 members of Muslim Brotherhood have been jailed in Egypt alone. Demonstrations, Islamic teachings, conspiracies against the dictators, altercation with the governing body- all led to their doomsday. Though, often, these dissidents did get released, yet eventually leading to their even more organised and established network in their history that dates to more than 80 years. Eventually, the ousting of Mubarak proved to be their gain. No longer they had to be underground or limit themselves into silence. Ready to plunge and play the safest bet, MB’s Freedom and Justice Party is all geared up to make the right move.

“Salafists Vs Muslim Brotherhood’

But what remains a big debate is- Would they convert Egypt into the “Islamic Republic of Egypt? MB is known for their aversion against Israel and Palestine. It is feared that they would manipulate the foreign policy of the new democratic state into abhorrence towards these two conflict prone countries. Last Friday, more than 5,000 protesters supporting MB had chanted slogans against the Jews, asking them to be banished from their land. Another main focus would also be the rights that minorities like Coptic Christians and women would gain after the drafting of the constitution. Adding to the turmoil is the ongoing victory of other Salafist party that are known for being ultra-conservative and very singular with their point of view. Interestingly, they were too conservative to such an extent that the posters carrying the names of their female candidates had pictures of flowers rather than the concerned candidate. Not very liberal, and a bit outspoken about their orthodox rules, Salafists have already declared they would organise different curriculum for girls and boys, restrict alcohol and censor arts and entertainment. Supporters of MB state that FJP would never form a coalition with the Salafists as they are more liberal, democratic and believe in pluralism.

‘Languishing revolutionaries’

No doubt, the natality and uprising has demanded a price, higher than money. The revolutionaries and youth groups that had started the entire spark are now, looming in their agony, flooded with financial barricades and lack of advertising. Yet, one can imagine that if they too, came in power, they could have caused a ‘squatter sovereignty’ rather than a ‘popular sovereignty’ which anyways is not realistic in the current liberal model that Egypt wants to hold. If the entire process of secularism is lost then what would be the fundamental basis of the ‘social contract’ that would function between the people and the government?

‘Idea of democracy’

Moreover, what happens in Egypt would not be just limited to its boundaries. Any effect would cause the most populous Arab country to produce a dominoes effect to its neighbours and international superpowers. That makes us this that a western, European and to a certain extent, colonial model of democracy the only saviour from dictatorships? Yes, we can not have the abstract sustenance of a ‘philosopher king’ in this respect of public administration, as it would eventually cause political mayhem. Also, just to believe that there are two sides to the uprising, one good and the other bad, stirs the idea of ‘manichaeism’ to a greater degree. Its not necessary that one needs to be with the Muslim Brotherhood or against it. There can be grey shades in the political practice that does not involve distinction. Though, nothing in life, administration, or governance is gained, till its not distinctively followed with a faith, irrespective of visible shortcomings that only cowardice notices.

Obama’s Ghost: withering Middle East economy and ambiguity

When Barack Obama talks about how his entire life, he was just wrestling with the ghost of ‘The Old Man’ (his first father), the pertinent fact remains- even though, his father is dead now, he, himself has become the first Black American President, unfortunately, the psychological fight has not terminated. He still thinks, he still fights.

It is difficult, to know a man, of his caliber, mettle and intellect to play a diplomatic mission in the Middle East. Yes, America does not want another Afghanistan. Yes, America did not even reveal how Osama was slaughtered. But here, in Middle East, it needs to. His administration can not keep playing imposing sanctions on Syria, or have secret talks with General Tantawi in Egypt or just write a letter in the New York Times with Cameron and Sarkozy for Libya.

‘No straight point with the MB’

No matter, how much America does discredit the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) for being originated from Al-Qaeda- these two are totally different institutions. Its another fact that several symbiotic revolutionaries from the Muslim Brotherhood have eventually caused terrorism but the organisation does not focus on just massive butchery like Al-Qaeda does. It does not focus on how Islam is portrayed by the West but how the Arabs can flawlessly adhere to what it means for them. Now, with very visible criticism against America in Iraq, the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, Egypt and Jordan have actually stated that they donot appreciate western capitalism. So, what does Obama gain by those secret influential talks? His own identity of being a Muslim and yet a Christian causes a certain strange equilibrium to adhere to. So, the safest bet, I think, it to let the legislative elections start today and at the same time, fear. Fear of what would happen to American foreign policy and trade if NDP or even the Freedom and Justice Party comes into the parliament with majority. Though, the NDP offshoots might cling to America, the others, will not.

‘Gadaffi: Gone with the wind’

In Libya, the US policy was far too diplomatic. Just like Saddam, they created Gadaffi and now they banished him on the world stage, with not even the ending scripts having the western superpower’s name. Intelligent trick. Hillary Clinton stated no boots on the ground, a decision which was followed. To what degree did it save the millions invested by the EU and France on the ‘No-Fly-Zone’ remains unaccountable. For that matter, how many lives were saved. It was the finest subtle victory.

‘Syrian economy: not breathing’

With Syria, sanctions are being imposed. Obama administration are re-evoking all the sanctions on the Central Bank, the trade, travel of Assad and his colleagues, etc. The ‘crisis economy’ would shrink again, this time, with 6%, this year. But then, Syria has Lebanon and Iraq to support. For how long, no one knows. But does the Obama administration really think that such diplomatic measures would not affect the common population? Its the common man out in the streets of Damascus facing the music. If the dominoes affect started, it would be him to be brutally assaulted by it. Not Assad, not Obama.

My entire fear is that, Obama, with the enormous respect he demands, is creating several new ‘Old Men’ for him. He is creating new ghosts to fight, new regrets and nascent unkept promises that would haunt him. For if, he was just another Capitalist, he would never have had the first life long wrestle, in the very first place.

P.S: It is a must read ‘Obama’s autobiography- Dreams from My Father’. Creates the similar frustation that Arvind Adiga did in ‘The White Tiger’

Why no one would win Egypt?

With the cries of ‘national salvation’ mushrooming in around 20,000 people, quite vehemently, at Tahrir Sqaure right now, it speaks that the Arab revolution has still not seen the termination. Unfortunately, as 28th November approaches quickly, the compulsive fact that Egypt would still not be won, stands audacious.

Amr Hamzawy, the liberal parliamentary candidate has stated that it is not the outcome that matters but the entire symbolism that the elections took place. Though, the elected parliament would be transitory but it does not undermine its influence in drafting the constitution of one of the most populous Arab countries that demands democracy and a representative parliament. Though, is it a safe bet then? To have people killed and injured for a mere disguise of victory for the opportunistic capitalism.

‘Muslim Brotherhood: the Bogeyman’

To start with, the Muslim Brotherhood with its Freedom and Justice Party has major chances of victory. One can see what happened in Tunisia. The main Islamist party ‘Ennahada’ won. But this fact has troubled several Republicans in US administration. Muslim Brotherhood, has always been witnessed as a bogeyman by America, like an embodiment of terror without actual mass and flesh. With Coptic Christians being killed in sectarian violence in Egypt, no doubt, Obama administration has been accused of doing exactly what is wrong in the entire Arab uprising. Though, Obama and Clinton are asking the Military council to loosen their grip over the protestors, they do not want to be seen publicly, as making decisions or even influencing the scenario. Or, for the matter, even blunt communication. The Egyptians will not like it. So, once again, America is in a lurch. What to support then? Their own vested interests in their foreign policy or their advertised support to democracy? They already dread that the Muslim brotherhood, often called as the Godfather of Al-Qaeda by Americans, would support their interests if elected?

‘Cracks in the  Military Council’

Now, every government, what so ever, has always witnessed a widening gap between the soldiers and the police. Though, the same happening in an interim government trying to crush down demonstrations is another interesting point. The Central Security Force, ie, the riot control police force has been always seen as low class and less intelligent when compared to the SCAF. (Supreme Council of Armed Forces).In fact, they have been summoned as ‘knuckle-draggers’. Adding to the mayhem, the riot police also holds a grudge against the SCAF as during the intitial January 25 revolutions, they were asked to winthdraw from Tahrir as they could not contain the uprising and hence, the soldiers were appointed. Now, SCAF plays a very intelligent role in the entire process. They do not publicly appear on the streets but they are secretly supplying equipments and vehicles to the riot control police. No doubt, they hold the ultimate executive powers in Egypt. Sadly, the military council is turning into nothing but a black box, with its own cracks appearing, slowly.

‘Fiasco of voters and parties’

Now turning to, who would come to vote? Around 20-30% of the voters would vote for  Muslim Brotherhood. The next 20% would vote for the elite Copt community while the rest of the 50% voters of the 50 million population are in the ‘cant say category’. And to vote for whom? Suddenly, there are tens of parties surfacing in the election scenario. Few strict Islamists, others liberal. Defection from Muslim Brotherhood, inter party conflicts for higher political hierarchy, aims and objectives-everything is a lot of information to gulp down in a  go. The youth who carried on the revolution has to face financial constraints of their own in marketing themselves into a legal party. Few of them, like the April 6 Movement and Coalition for Revolution Change have just become fading names, carrying  a symbiosis with established coalitions.

The slogans have changed. Rather than Mubarak, it is ‘Tantawi, go back’. Did Egyptians fight for what is currently happening? Well, the transition from military dictatorship  to  a civil government will never happen smoothly in the current world, but at what cost do we lose Egypt then?

P.S: Image from Palestine Chronicle.

Forced Virginity tests on women protesters in Egypt

A senior Egyptian army general has confessed that ‘virginity checks’ were forcibly done on female protesters in Egypt. The social media is already bombarding with tweets and posts calling these checks as form of sexual abuse. In a humorous note, someone mentioned, passing the virginity test in Egypt is as embarrasing as failing it in America.

To me, it is repulsive, illegal and of course, abhorrent. To start with, Egypt on one hand, detailed Suzzaine, the wife of Mubarak only for 15 days. She might even get the immunity from prosecution in return of handing over her two bank accounts and a villa in Cairo. One of her accounts includes 3 million dollars.

But on the other hand, innocent female protestors who revolted are now being subjugated to forced virginity checks. Why the difference in between these women?

‘Not your daughter or mine?’

I am appalled by the statements issued by Shahira Amin, who once used to the deputy editor of Nile TV but boycotted it after she realised she could not be a hypocrite. She states that the Army general simply made a point that ‘these women detained are not your daughter or mine.’

Adding to the abominable remarks, he said that it was necessary to carry out these virginity tests on these women because

a. They protested with men during the 18 day revolution. Drugs and Molotov cocktails were founds in their tents at Tahrir Square.

b. The tests would impose the fact that they have not been sexually abused by Egyptian soldiers.

These reasons have been stated by General Ismail Etman himself, as reported by Huffpost World.

This reminds me of Eman- el -Obeidi from Libya, the young law student who was repeatedly raped and when she did run out to the hotel where foreign journalists stayed, she was ruthlessly carried away in a van and thrown away in some anoymous area.

‘Future for women in dictatorship?’

This makes me lose hope when I see women rebels getting trained to use AK-47 and other weapons in Libya. What justice and security would they get, apart from assault and death?

Its a matter of immense shame that women protesters in Egypt had to go through. They were given electric shocks, stripped naked infront of male soldiers, even photographed, beaten, etc.

Meanwhile, bloggers and activists are livid because of such episodes that continue to haunt the country irrespective of Mubarak stepping down. Hence, its right to state its not the dictator that needs to be punished but the ideology.

Its difficult to fight if you do not have one man at the top of the civilian government, anymore. Because now, there is a sea of ruthless men, with no faces or even consciousness. Great shame, indeed.