Kofi Annan’s peace plan’s weakness inspite of Russia and China’s support

On 20th March, Russia stated that it was ready to support France’s presidential statement to UN, procuring Kofi Annan’s peace plan. Suddenly, both Russia and China who had shielded Syria by vetoing against 2 UN resolutions, have changed their alignment.

On the other hand, Kofi Annan who met Assad last month could not create immediate results. In fact, the terms and conditions of his diplomatic talk with Assad have not been made public. Well, I wonder if they would have anyways received more importance than the sudden email leads of Assad and his cosmopolitan wife. These emails storming the news media, perhaps have become a new face of ‘information propaganda war’.

Without meticulous analysis, a common man watching Syrian news is revealed that Assad has been getting guidance from Iran and his father-in-law in London to squash the rebels. Similar to it was the leaked Barbara Walter’s interview preparation when Assad was shown to learn how to give an interview infront of the American public.

Kofi Annan’s peace plan

Turning back to Kofi Annan’s peace plan, it includes 6 points like, both the sides should end violence, daily pauses for humanitarian assistance, release of political prisoners and access to journalists, freedom of assembly for protest and above all, the Syrian government and opposition should work in good faith. Well, the peace plan is a statement and not a resolution that can be legally binded. It portrays nothing but another feeble attempt from the side of West to conquer the Middle East.

‘Different dance for China and Russia’

What disturbs more is that both China and Russia are changing sides. This swift change was perhaps visible from the very time Moscow stated that it would not be granting asylum to Assad. Well, Russia cares for Tartus, its military and its arms trade. It was surprising that it was Tunisia’s president Moncef Marzouki who stated asylum for Assad, not just once but three times, eventually declining his offer. As far as China is concerned, it is anyways known for its ‘transactional diplomacy‘ which involves globe trotting all over the world with a fat checkbook in hand. Both Russia and China are quasi allies, after all, they both were communist blocs, hungry to export their revolutions, all around the world. Their security dilemma and hatred for the West has bought them closer, but how will this relationship affect Syria?

Lessons from Libya, Egypt and Tunisia

On the other hand, perhaps no one is learning from Libya. The NATO unilateralism in Libya has segmented the country between demands of federalism rising amid Benghazi and Tripoli. The Interim government has yet not pursued the war crimes. The Truth and Reconciliation commission is a farce, nothing else. Though, all TRCs have their own problems.

Like the one in South Africa only heard the grievances of 20,000 victims in the anti-aparthied struggle while others were simply forgotten. At the same time, even UN is not forcing these commissions to investigate human rights abuses.

While Egypt is now marching towards Presidential elections and Muslim Brotherhood has finally stated that they would have their own nominee, also. But the government is still ruled by the military and the parliament is just a ceremonial institution. This has made is very difficult for Egypt to obtain a $3.2 billion loan from the IMF.

Turning to Tunisia, the country seems to follow the Turkish model of democracy and rule of law, as it celebrated its Independence day from France in 1956 on 20th March. Tunisian presidents and foreign ministers are engrossed in talking about Libya, setting firms in Italy, petrol prices and welcoming Turkey’s President.

‘Syria’s revolution spills’

Also, Syria’s turmoil will not be limited to its own geopolitics. Lebanon, right now, who played the role of silent supporter for Syria, is facing the consequences. The shells fired in Syria has already started hitting the Lebanese border village of al-Qaa, where severally Syrian refugees are currently hiding. Similarly, the Libyan revolution did spill to Mali while the Egyptian to Sudan. Therefore, with the kind of geopolitical importance that Syria has, the chess board might utterly change, if its revolution gets exported.

‘Turkey and Syria: Is a military confrontation near?’

Meanwhile, in a very discreet manner, Turkey has started establishing a buffer zone at the Syrian side. 500 soldiers have already arrived to look over the current scenario and the migration of refugees. Well, this entire plan, without the knowledge or prior consent of the Damascus regime can lead to military confrontation if Turkey does not play the right cards. The entire situation puts Turkey in a very unconformable situation because it has to also seal its border from the influx of Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) along with the Syrian refugees. Right from last year August, Turkey has been conducting air strikes against the Kurdish camps in Iraq. Few leaked reports have stated that Syrian regime employs Kurdish militia to maintain control over the northern regions- a reason well enough to anger the Turkish Armed Forces.

Russian Navy and Syria’s future?

Recently, there has also been another rumour that a Russian navy has landed a tanker in Syria on its Tartus port. It involves ‘anti-terrorism’ marines to further squash the rebels.  Well, the Damascus regime has currently negated the rumour. Nevertheless, just like the ‘Friends of Syria’ meeting in Tunisia last month, the Kofi Annan Peace Plan seems to fall flat. With Damascus regime being tight lipped, its even difficult to predict the consequences. The May elections predicted by Bashar al Assad would be the next important issue to look at.

Thomas Friedman reveals the Detestable self through ‘There be Dragons’

When Samuel Huntington wrote the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ after the disintegration of USSR, he funneled the odious orientalism of Middle East, Africa and Asia. For him, it was just US and Japan that deserved to dominate. Ten years later, after the September 2001 attacks, Edward Said answered him back with his ‘Clash of Ignorance.’. The title promises the satire at Huntington who was now being judged by an occidentalist.

In 2012, Thomas Friedman, the world renowned Pulitzer award winning New York Times columnist wrote ‘There be Dragons‘. Perhaps his zionist side has added to his complacency when he describes Middle East being the area of ‘dangerous and uncharted locations.’ He states that ‘ In medieval times, areas known to be dangerous or uncharted were often labeled on maps with the warning: “Beware, here be dragons.” That is surely how mapmakers would be labeling the whole Middle East today.’

Without wasting ten more years in this process, I want to answer him immediately for the delusions he carries in his tirade against North Africa, Middle East and West Asia.

1. He states ‘We also tend to believe that inside every autocracy is a democracy dying to get out, but that might not be true in the Middle East.‘

We cannot criticise Lenin, Stalin or Mao for what communism eventually became during their regime because they always lacked the intellectual honesty of Karl Marx. Communism failed. Disastrously. But worse that that is the transformation of democracy into ‘dictatorship of the government.’ Friedman does not mention that when countries like Iran gained their democracy in the early 1950s, it was CIA and America that executed the coup and snatched it away. He does not understand the significance when Ayatollah Khameini stated ‘We believe in democracy and we also believe in freedom, but we do not believe in liberal democracy.’ Perhaps, he considers Saudi Arabia that functions without even a constitution, more competent than other Middle Eastern countries. Also, if democracy is so important, why is Turkey, that has revamped itself for getting a membership in the EU for the past one decade, not respected and used as a snitch? Perhaps, George Bush thought he would make ‘democracy halaal’ in Iraq by invading it. But we all know, it added to the civil war. So, Friedman does not mention the incompetency of western powers to even establish what they believe in. And we do not even need to go to Palestine and how Israel created the Second Holocaust, worse than what Hitler did, to throw Muslims and Christians out of their own homeland. If Friedman craves to see Middle East democratic, he should understand that US had played the role of a ‘devil’s advocate’ in using this entire region as a chess board where his opponents just lost.

2. He states ‘When the iron lid of autocracy comes off, Middle east falls back, not on liberalism, but Islamism, sectarianism, tribalism or military rule.‘

Hardly before 1989 when Salman Rushdie’s book ‘Satanic Verses’ was released, no one knew or talked about Islamism. Later, the 9/11 attacks added to the Islamophobia. Today, the western powers think that ‘Shariah Law’ and ‘Islam’ is connected with ‘terrorism’ or ‘jihad’. In reality, this is not the case. Its not justice to blame Islam when Christianity also has its own loopholes. No one criticizes the Church in Greece or even orders an investigation into the millions of euros that are stored. If they did, Greece, I promise, would not have been in debt. To the outside ignorant public, it is stated that countries like Greece, Italy, Ireland, etc are facing recession because they were ‘welfare states’. If one investigates their economy, what they are facing right now is the result of ‘fiscal irresponsibility’. Anyways, coming back to the point, the ‘Church’ is not questioned. So, if that kind of pattern is followed for Western countries, why can’t the government by mosque or even its sovereignty be such a problem? Friedman does not mention that Muslim Brotherhood, for the past several decades have been carrying out grassroots changes in Egypt, Jordan, Yemen and to a certain extent in Syria.  As far as Salafists are concerned, even the people of Egypt know that they do not want them to rule.

As far as sectarianism is concerned, Friedman forgets that western powers, themselves, have been using this major issue to cause further chaos. He does not talk about Lebanon where the Maronite Christians have been used as an instrument by Roman and French powers to hate Sunnis, Shias, Druze and Kurds. I can not debate about tribalism because Friedman perhaps might find everyone a ‘tribal’ if he is not from US or Israel. And as far as military rule is concerned, he perhaps once again forgot that its US which has been actually strengthening the military of countries like Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Pakistan by giving them aids and arms.

3.  He states ‘Almost four years ago, we elected a black man, whose name was Barack, whose grandfather was a Muslim, to lead us out of our worst economic crisis in a century.’

Well, when it comes to Barack Obama, his first identity is not the “president’ but a ‘black man’. Friedman thinks that after 200 years and a civil crisis, America could ‘Make it happen.’ But he doesnot mention that ‘Right now, we are forcing the same black man to go on war with Iran’, or he does not mention that ‘ we are trying to make this man whose grandfather was a Muslim force for military intervention in Syria’. You know, what the funny part here is? If Obama does it, he would be called nothing but a stooge like George Bush. If he doesnot, his competitors like Mitt Romney and Ron Paul would call him a coward. Friedman thinks that the civil war in America is over because people are not dying anymore. But what about Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq, where they are being killed?

4. He states ‘You see in Syria how quickly the regime turned the democracy push there into a sectarian war.’

Western powers should not touch the subject of Syria which has become a case of international conspiracy than that of civil war. The western media’s propaganda does not talk about how Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Israel are funding the Free Syrian army by giving them arms. One does not need to think twice for knowing how is behind these proxies. Bashar al Assad has been easily caused the ‘Tyrant’, ‘ The replica of Hafez who caused the massacre in Hamas 30 years back.’. No one knows the reality but everyone judges them. Al Jazeera has been as zionist as ever, in its broadcast, often manufacturing news rather than reporting it. And also, what happened in Libya? There was ‘No Fly Zone’ and the cunning twist of UN’s resolution to causie regime change. Colonel Gadaffi was killed. What happened next? The Libyan Transitional Council is still not able to contain the militancy. But who cares? If Libya could not succeed, its Libya’s problem. No one should question the impeccability of US, Britain and France.

5. He states ‘U.S. troops accidentally burned some Korans, and President Obama apologized. Afghans nevertheless went on a weeklong rampage, killing innocent Americans in response — and no Afghan leader, even our allies, dared to stand up and say: “Wait, this is wrong. Every week in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq, Muslim suicide bombers kill other Muslims — holy people created in the image of God — and there’s barely a peep. Yet the accidental burning of holy books by Americans sparks outbursts and killings. What does our reaction say about us?

Firstly, there is a propaganda by media to just state news that contains suicide bombers killing people in Pakistan, Afghanistan and Iraq. They want to create this public opinion that these countries are unsafe, froth with turmoil and terrorists- and eventually, should be dominated. Its all psychological how this grooming is done. I must ask Friedman how he would react if Afghanis burnt his ‘Old Testament’ or the ‘Bible of Jews’? Jews still consider themselves as victims to what happened decades back. So, why should the natives of Afghanistan, Pakistan and Iraq forget so soon? They too have faced deaths.

And what difference does it make if Obama did apologize? Friedman criticises Taliban and Al-Qaeda without actually naming them. But then, who created Taliban? Who created Al-Qaeda? He forgets that drone attacks still continue in Pakistan (recently, have started in Syria). He does not go into the depth of why Muslims kill other Muslims. He does not frame them into Pathans or the tribals in Waziristan or the Muhajirs in Karachi.For him, they are one and the same. Muslims killing each other would have been an issue in 1979 when USSR had conquered Afghanistan, now it does not matter. US is in a uni-polar world, an excellent example of social darwinism.

Morals and ethics have no place in real politik. But justice has. Friedman should know that when he points one finger at others, three fingers are pointing at him. Its ignorance and unfortunate use of racism by Friedman to write this article, creating further perceptions for a common American who does not actually know what is happening.

If dragons have to be there, they aren’t in locations but inside of people.

Arming of revolutionaries: A shrewd tactics in international diplomacy

Active promotion of revolutions has been very prominent right from 1790s when the French revolutionaries jumped on the bandwagon for internationalist diplomacy. Over the years, this process of ‘exporting the revolutions‘ has been used by super-powers to thrash the flawed government of developing countries and impose imperialism. They mostly express their impeccability when questioned about the clandestine manner in which they train outside revolutionaries, militants and rebels. But there are few who pay the price. For example, ‘By challenging the legitimacy of all foreign interventions, Bolsheviks invited all foreign governments to challenge their own.’ Interestingly, the Syrian uprising has provided an opportunistic platform to western powers to use their alliances and hegemony to overthrow Assad regime.

In a meeting of  Saudi Foreign Minister Prince Saud al-Faisal with US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, Saudi Arabia has backed the arming of Syrian guerrilla groups. Riyadh has been transporting arms to Syria through the Sunni tribal ally groups in Iraq and Lebanon. As Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, Qatar’s prime minister has also backed the arming of Syrian rebels. FSA is being funneled with Russian Anti-tank missiles and sophisticated weapons system from various sympathizers from Assad’s military. Even Libyan interim leader Mustafa Abdul Jalil has supported Syrian rebels as around 600 Libyans have transported on Syrian soil to fight as volunteers.

The Free Syrian Army which is disorganized, cluttered into groups of rebels, has definitely become a fiction mailbox, pretending to reach out to innocent civilians. Marc Lynch has intelligently questioned if the process of arming FSA would lead to any immediate results. He predicts three outcomes out of this phenomenon. First, the rebels use the arms for their defence or secondly, they overpower the Syrian military and force them to surrender.  Finally, the rebels and the military can even out each other’s power and eventually negotiate. What most powers do not think about is that since FSA contains several groups, often splitting due to their lack of agreement. The entire rat race to get arms would cause severe competition in these armed gangs, leading to further chaos and militancy.

Unfortunately, Syria is not like China or Iran where the foreign interventionists and their real agendas can be filtered or understood. For example, the British Embassy in Peking was burnt by Red Guards during the Cultural Revolution in 1967. The US Embassy seizure in Tehran in 1979 during the  Iranian revolution has permanently soured US-Iran relations. At the same time, history is replete with examples where the ‘Syria chapter’ has been repeated, on and on.

• Soviet provisions used to supply arms, training and advisers through Comintern to underground military units in communist countries.
• Chinese supported the Vietnam for opposition to France from 1950-1954.
• Cuba provided aid to Sandinista National Liberation Front in Nicaragua after 1977.
• People’s Democratic Republic of Yemen provided bases and trainings to arm guerrillas to Oman and North Yemen. After its establishment in 1967, it also deployed guerrillas for sporadic clashes with Saudi Arabia.
• Bolsheviks attempted to assist revolutionaries in Mongolia, Iran and Poland in the 1920s.
• Iran supported militants in Iraq, Lebanon and Afghanistan.

On the other hand, just like Russia is supporting arms supplies to Syria, USSR was also involved in arming China and Vietnam during 1950s, Cuba and Vietnam during 1960s and Angola and Mozambique during 1970s. Well, it was Cuba and Vietnam which caused US and USSR to drift apart, eventually dodging the nuclear war in 1962.

Therefore, this entire trend of arming the revolutionaries by powerful nations is not new. One can find the residue of  Marxist internationalist agenda of creating continuous and inevitable world wide revolutionary upheaval in such attempts. Very often, the thin defining line differentiating revolution from nationalism is erased.

In Syria, the uprisings are being used as an ‘instrument’ where the internationalism of western and Arab powers is being adopted for their own selfish interests rather than social justice and social order. There is an evident gap in the overlapping of revolutionary aspiration and capability because most of the Syrian rebels are fighting on abstract and anonymous grounds. It makes them vulnerable and eventuate into mortals fighting on lost cause.

US Drones in Syria, Turkey accepts Mossad’s cooperation

‘If a dog fell into your well, would you remove the dog or empty the well? Once a red dog fell into Afghan well, the International community helped to get it out. Now, a white dog has fallen, what are they doing? They are emptying the well, one bucket at a time.’

By the time the reader fully understands the meaning of every word mentioned above, a melancholy spirit of distaste and pain is generated from within.

The story of Afghanistan after 1989 invasion of Soviet Union followed by American occupation can be rightly explained through the above words.

Interestingly, the same narration travels to Syria now.’The white dog has fallen into Syria’s well. What they are doing now, interestingly, is to increase the size of this well’

‘US drones in Syria: Legal or Illegal?’

The conspiracies and murky bets are turning true. America accepted that there are US drones flying over Syria. After the Iraq war by Bush Administration that worked on the principle of ‘ Either you are with us, or against us’, US is revealing its new colours. How can, one country, inspite of it being a super power, ever have the rightful access to another country’s air space?

Its amazing how the propaganda can be used. US states that its urgent to send drone attacks to Syria so that the real picture can be narrated to the international audience and hence, a stronger international response can be attained.In the terms of international diplomacy, US tends to find ‘intercepts of Syrian government and military communications.’ Well, who will take the blame/ or credit, if President Assad is assassinated in this attempt?

‘The failure of UN, again’

If that has to be the eventual end, I believe there is not point in having meetings of the UN security councils and even the vetoes. It turns out that all these highly acclaimed meetings are nothing but presentations put by paper tigers with no meaning, essence or even motif of sustenance.

‘Syria is not Pakistan’

Syria is not Pakistan that has sold itself under President Musharaff to US. It does not deserve the unmanned drone attacks. In fact, its Russia which has military base in Syria, unlike American bases in Pakistan.Osama bin Laden did not go to hiding in Syria after leaving Sudan. Al-Qaeda and Pathan Taleban are not in Syria. Hence, US knows that it can not use the usual message of ‘War on Terror’.

‘Stalin Versus Obama’

But to carry out the same odious execution, the name will be changed, wile the operation remains the same.

I wonder, whats the difference between US ( as a complete entity) and Stalin? They both are carrying out massive executions and using conspiracies to defend themselves.

‘Turkey’s role in Syria‘

Also, it has been revealed that the Turkey had been training the Free Syrian Army. 40 Turkish intelligence officials have been captured working along with the Syrian opposition. They also confessed that Mossad (The Israeli Intelligence) has been working with them. In fact, Mossad has also been working with the Al-qaeda operative in Jordan to slash out Syria.

One can find one common trail, or a pattern. In the case of Libya, US had relied on Al-Qaeda fighters who belonged to the Libyan Islamic Fighting Group (LIFG) to out Gadaffi. Undoubtedly, in the case of Syria, it is the Free Syrian Army that is being used in the similar manner.

‘Have revolutions failed?’

Perhaps Edmund Burke was right when he smirked at the French Revolution and stated that such occurrences are nothing but a facade. One can see the dwindling path of the uprising in Syria.

Well, someone rightly said, Reason and ignorance, opposites of each other, influence bulk of mankind. If either of these can be rendered sufficiently extensive in a country, the machinery of the government goes on.

But no one said, what happens, if both Assad and US start using the ‘ignorance’ and no reasoning, ever follows.

Russia and China against UN’s draft resolution for Syria

As Syria is replacing Iran’s title of ‘North Korea in the Mediterranean’, the country witnesses 11 month crackdown with the death of 5400 civilians. The highly awaited meeting of UN’s Security Council in New York went as expected. Both China and Russia stated that they would veto against the Moroccan authored draft resolution, if accepted by the Security Council. Nabil Elaraby, the Secretary General of Arab League along with Sheikh Thani, the PM of Qatar have been quite vocal against Syria.

The current resolution gives 15 days to Assad for handing over the power to his deputy Farouk al Shaara, who is currently the vice president of the country. He has served as a Syrian Foreign Minister from 1984-2006. He is known for playing an important role in maintaining Syria’s relationship with Lebanon and Israel. Last July, Farouk held government meetings, speaking about the transition to a truly pluralistic democratic state.

Meanwhile, an Israeli newspaper Maariv has stated that farouk arrived in Moscow in December to discuss the possibility of providing political asylum to Bashar al- Assad and his family.

Arab League’s smart act

In a quite smart and diplomatic act, Arab League sent a 165 member mission to Syria. These international monitors revealed that 400 people have died since their deployment. These numbers created further chaos and blemished the image of Assad. The League still has 100 members in Syria, as an act to show the western world how they do care for the civilians in Syria but sadly, can not play an integral role in stopping the deaths. Hence, nothing is going to work apart from the draft resolution of the Security Council.

But is this a cunning step to turn Syria into another LIbya. The ‘Right to Protect’ Act was twisted by NATO in the Resolution 1973 which was passed by UN last year. The resolution was meant to protect the civilians and not to cause regime change, which eventually, it did. Both Russia and China, who had not been very vocal during the time of Libya, regretted their cowardice. They not only faced heavy economical losses but even the wide perception that their foreign policies and opinions do not matter in the western hegemony.

Russia and China’s support

Its not only communism which is common in both the countries. One must remember Stalin and how he butchered his own men before the Second World War. Also, one must not forget the Tianmen Protests in China in 1989, killing hundreds of protestors.

The same lineage can be scrutinised in Hama Massacre that took place in Syria when the then President Hafez killed thousands of Sunni Muslim protestors against his regime.

Perhaps, the Syrian tyranny gives power to both Russia and China.

The paranoia and sense of madness continues. Especially, if its the deciding point of elections. Both Russia and China are going to have elections this year. Vladimir Puntin, running for the Presidential elections has been criticising Medvedev for being a neutral spectator during Libya.

Also, Russia has its naval base at the port city of Tartus. Its the only passage for Russia to the Mediterranean. The Russian- Syrian trade relations value $4 billion dollars while the Chinese Syrian trade amounts to more than $1.8 dollars.

Russia has been selling fighter jets, anti-ship cruise missiles and fighters to Syria right from the start of Cold War.

China started its diplomatic relations with Syria from 1956 and continues to maintain it.

All of this can be seen as a subtle polarizing of the world into two political power associations.

Anti-Imperialism or For Sovereignity

The entire Arab uprising, creating chaotic dominoes effect, has become a struggle between foreign intervention and protection of a country’s own sovereignty. America continues with a soft power approach but ultimately its strong on ‘You are with us or against us’ principle.

One must know that Syria is also different from Libya from  a very interesting angle. In Libya, it was Gadaffi and the rebels. While, in Syria, it is Bashar al Assad, the rebels and a catalysing population of religious extremists and terrorists who are also involved in killing innocent civilians. Its difficult to say who trains them. There are rumours that western countries are training them, especially France in Lebanon and Turkey so that they can revolt against the government.

Hence, its a million dollar question if Assad would actually resign or might become another Gadaffi for Syria.

Romanticized Revolutions: Fall of dictators, justice and Syrian diaspora

When Thomas Friedman questions in his article, ‘Will the past bury the future in Arab world or will the future bury the past?’, he seems to naturally tussle with ‘how to define the Arab spring’. Very often, such definitions, do not contain the power of romanticizing the revolution but on the contrary, assimilate them in hollow, abstract units that lose their utter meaning.

‘Difference between Gadaffi, Ben Ali and Mubarak?

In this post, I would attempt to question on certain areas which have yet not been debated, vehemently at the international platform. The first one, remains on how do you describe justice? Justice of the fall of the dictators. In Tunisia and Egypt, both Ben Ali and Mubarak, respectively had not been butchered or assassinated like Gadaffi was. These two dictators, who are still alive, have been toppled and are undergoing trials which do not mention a concrete day of their doomsday in their respective country’s Supreme Courts. Since, the revolution was against their dictatorship, as they has become a murky face of ruthless domination, is subjecting them to court proceedings is what the common man wants? So, should they too, be subjected to be slaughtered by their rebels? On the other hand, the termination of Gadaffi’s lonely breath, meant something greater for Libya. In case, it actually did, for how long and for what kind of utilitarian good? One man’s food is another man’s poison- a proverb coming to life in the Middle Eastern politics. But it still remains a vacuum that were these two fates, one of legislative justice and the other of barbarian justice- the only two fates for these dictators?

‘Real and taught revolution’

Secondly, turning to the difference between a real revolution and a transported revolution.. What happened in Tunisia, sparked the entire Arab uprising. In a real revolution, the citizens know the reason they have to fight for. While, in a transported revolution, they are taught the reason why they should fight for. Like an infectious disease, the wrath mushroomed, each having the loophole of ‘unknown destinations’. It is said, ‘If you do not know where you have to go, then any road will take you there.’. This abstract philosophy can be actually seen in Egypt where people are left wondering, that did they participate in just another military coup or was it a real remonstration. In the taught revolution, there is imitation, lack of leadership and fragmentation. Just because your neighbor did it, you too, should do it. Yes, there was socio-economic disparity, modernized slavery, absence of freedom and expression. But at the same time, at least, there was a representative parliament with its own decorum that knew its ways. Right now, nations fighting for drafting their constitution under the majority of Islamic parties will definitely rely on religion as their new form of domination. So, where is the independence and idea of secularism that needed?

‘Syria’s tomorrow’

Thirdly, what would happen, if Syria too, faces the same destiny as Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. The dictator dies or is ousted, the public still fights against the interim government, more bloodshed and lack of rational unity. Very interestingly, the Arab League has started imposing sanctions on Syria, in my personal opinion, more to shove off the foreign intervention rather than to actually weaken the opposition against Assad. How much would this show off work, depends on time. And so does, the outcome of whatever happens beyond that.

Obama’s Ghost: withering Middle East economy and ambiguity

When Barack Obama talks about how his entire life, he was just wrestling with the ghost of ‘The Old Man’ (his first father), the pertinent fact remains- even though, his father is dead now, he, himself has become the first Black American President, unfortunately, the psychological fight has not terminated. He still thinks, he still fights.

It is difficult, to know a man, of his caliber, mettle and intellect to play a diplomatic mission in the Middle East. Yes, America does not want another Afghanistan. Yes, America did not even reveal how Osama was slaughtered. But here, in Middle East, it needs to. His administration can not keep playing imposing sanctions on Syria, or have secret talks with General Tantawi in Egypt or just write a letter in the New York Times with Cameron and Sarkozy for Libya.

‘No straight point with the MB’

No matter, how much America does discredit the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) for being originated from Al-Qaeda- these two are totally different institutions. Its another fact that several symbiotic revolutionaries from the Muslim Brotherhood have eventually caused terrorism but the organisation does not focus on just massive butchery like Al-Qaeda does. It does not focus on how Islam is portrayed by the West but how the Arabs can flawlessly adhere to what it means for them. Now, with very visible criticism against America in Iraq, the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, Egypt and Jordan have actually stated that they donot appreciate western capitalism. So, what does Obama gain by those secret influential talks? His own identity of being a Muslim and yet a Christian causes a certain strange equilibrium to adhere to. So, the safest bet, I think, it to let the legislative elections start today and at the same time, fear. Fear of what would happen to American foreign policy and trade if NDP or even the Freedom and Justice Party comes into the parliament with majority. Though, the NDP offshoots might cling to America, the others, will not.

‘Gadaffi: Gone with the wind’

In Libya, the US policy was far too diplomatic. Just like Saddam, they created Gadaffi and now they banished him on the world stage, with not even the ending scripts having the western superpower’s name. Intelligent trick. Hillary Clinton stated no boots on the ground, a decision which was followed. To what degree did it save the millions invested by the EU and France on the ‘No-Fly-Zone’ remains unaccountable. For that matter, how many lives were saved. It was the finest subtle victory.

‘Syrian economy: not breathing’

With Syria, sanctions are being imposed. Obama administration are re-evoking all the sanctions on the Central Bank, the trade, travel of Assad and his colleagues, etc. The ‘crisis economy’ would shrink again, this time, with 6%, this year. But then, Syria has Lebanon and Iraq to support. For how long, no one knows. But does the Obama administration really think that such diplomatic measures would not affect the common population? Its the common man out in the streets of Damascus facing the music. If the dominoes affect started, it would be him to be brutally assaulted by it. Not Assad, not Obama.

My entire fear is that, Obama, with the enormous respect he demands, is creating several new ‘Old Men’ for him. He is creating new ghosts to fight, new regrets and nascent unkept promises that would haunt him. For if, he was just another Capitalist, he would never have had the first life long wrestle, in the very first place.

P.S: It is a must read ‘Obama’s autobiography- Dreams from My Father’. Creates the similar frustation that Arvind Adiga did in ‘The White Tiger’

Hunt of Colonel Gaadaffi Vs the tranisition of Libya by rebels

The invasion of Iraq in 2003 didnot signify arrest of Saddam Hussein which consequently took place after 8 months. Unfortunately, it looks the same for Colonel Gadaffi’s hunt, which might too turn into a protracted affair. But what ultimately matters is not the mere arrest of the strongman but the fact that what step would his loyalists take. Would they too join Al-Qaeda as Saddam Hussein’s supporters did or would they be ruled over by the rebels who have somehow gone quite eccentric with the sudden access of power.

Consensual and inclusive transition by the Libyan people looks difficult till the hunt for Colonel Gadaffi does not lead concrete results. Though, after the surrender of the military commanders, hundreds of political prisoners that were jailed in the prisons of the country have been set free. Also, UN has been urging the rebels to control the jeopardy that it being caused. Also, $1.5 billion frozen assets of Libya is set to be given to the National Transitional Council (NTC). NTC called as the ‘political face of the revolution’ has declared, ‘we are entering a phase which we would call the phase of managing expectations.’

‘Evidence of war crimes’

Another inspiring news is that now Amnesty International and Human Rights watch do have evidence for supporting that Colonel Gadaffi and his loyalists were involved in war crimes. Dr. Moez Zeiton from Manchester who has volunteered to play an integral part in serving the patients and documenting the war crimes stated that recently 17 more injured and dead bodies were bought to the hospital in Tripoli. One of the sole survivors, Mansur Al-Ahady, revealed how they were jailed by loyalists of Colonel Gadaffi in a nearby school and targeted with machine guns.

‘Rebels Vs Loyalists’

In the meantime, the loyalists of Gadaffi and the rebels have entered into another tussle. Steve from Kenya tweeted that black people are being targetted by rebels because they were supposedly considered to be a commuity that empathised with the dictator. While, the Al Arabiya TV states that the loyalists have already bombarded the airports. Fighting continues in Rass Al Jadeer, Regdalen, Aljamil and Alagelat in the West of Libya in between these two sides.

‘Role of NTC’

Another intriguing aspect is now who would lead Libya after Colonel Gadaffi is gone. To start with, the NTC itself is made from loose connection of different genres of rebels who have different demands. The current chairman Mustafa Abdul Jalil who was the former justice minister is considered to be the perfect choice. Jon Leyne from BBC states ‘NTC will have a few hundred million dollars in a matter of days to pay salaries, get food and water along with essential services.’ Though, we all know that power corrupts and absolute power corrupts absolutely. The rebels have started to move from Benghazi where the NTC came into establishment to Tripoli so that their stronghold can be maintained and also enhanced.

In Libya, there is foreign intervention but no ruling power. Also, like Tunisia and Egypt, there is no army that can play a very pivotal role in avoiding chaos or instilling the sense of discipline through fear or rules. No doubt, more than anything, the immediate and most enterprising challenge is to prevent the massive killings of Gadaffi loyalists by the hands of rebels so that the country does not continue to exist in bloodbath.

In a nutshell, no one knows if the civil war in Libya is over after the surrender of the dictatorship.

The future of Libya: Why Gadaffi’s surrender does not make a difference in Arab Uprising

‘ In spite of the fact that the Arab people themselves felt considerable enthusiasm for pan Arab causes, the individual regimes were never able to agree on what kind of unity they should strive for and what institutional structures it would be based on,’ says Roger Owen, the famous British historian who has written several books on the Middle Eastern causes.

Adding another chapter to the ambiguity of the lost unity comes the sudden absence of Colonel Gadaffi after 42 years or dictatorship, further defining how Arab world politics has become a ‘double edged sword.’ 

No doubt, the termination of Gadaffi and the stronghold of rebels in Tripoli comes as a major boost to Anglo French forces, NATO and western intervention. But the fact remains that is Libya getting converted into another Iraq?

Though, the rebel minister of Libya, Mahmoud Shammam, declared that the chief military commanders have surrendered their guns, it can be clearly stated that the country is in ruins.

Anthony Cordesman, the representative from the Center for Strategic and International Studies has stated that though the Gadaffi regime has witnessed an end, it would be difficult for Libya to flower into democracy any time soon.

No doubt, it was essential for the Libyan revolution to gain independence, especially after taking into consideration the number of martyrs that have been produced, the investment done by the western countries and the level of international news created in this time frame.

But in the larger context, the picture is still deluded.

‘Economic crisis’

To start with, the power of a nation, its strength to bounce after suffering a shattering collapse, heavily depends on its economic potential. The ongoing uprising in Libya has certainly degraded the oil exporting capacity of the African nation. Unfortunately, Libya no longer can produce 1.6 million barrels per day. Also, it depends on how much time and trust would the international oil companies demand to invest again in Libya taking into consideration the kind of security situation existing in the region.

Though, at the same time, the European market, which has suffered more because of Libyan oil not being present in feasible quantity, it would, if intelligent enough, make most of this dire situation for its benefit and work on ending the jeopardy.

‘Workable government’

Secondly, the definition of the ‘workable government’ which needs to be established in Libya is another herculean task. If Libya craves to be another reflection of Egypt where the trial of surrendered dictator Mubarak has itself become a massive controversy, this form of short term euphoria does not matter. A proper constitution set across with elective procedures would not occur in chaos. At the same time, one needs to register that these rebels come from different states and hence have various different mentalities. To start with, the rebels from Tripoli function differently from the rebels from Benghazi. Hence, the concept of ‘unity in diversity’ would be impractical to attain so soon.

‘Humanitarian crisis’

Thirdly, Libya is undergoing a massive humanitarian crisis. Moussa Ibrahim, the spokesperson from the Libyan government revealed that currently 5000 people have been injured and 1300 are dead. Hundreds of civilians are present in the hospital for treatment. There is a stupendous scarcity of blood and oxygen. In such conditions, it would be another spectacle for Libya to stand strongly for its growth and development.

‘International assistance’

Fourthly and most importantly, who will help in healing Libya? The main foundations are definitely Nato, UN, European Union, Arab League and the African Union. US has clearly stated that it would, if it does, play an essential role in humanitarian aid of the country rather than sending boots on the ground. Also, the continuous condition questions how much more finance can these countries invest in Libya again after the ‘no fly zone’ already costing millions per day.

In a nutshell, the termination of Gadaffi to unknown shores does not make much of a concrete difference in the capacity building of the country against the fight. Yes, the one common enemy has been defeated but the real fight does not end with the surrender of a dictator. Libya needs to give importance to political pluralism and individual rights of every citizen  who have fought for something they believed in. At the same time, the citizens should once again unite and delve on who the ‘enemy’ actually was.

Till then, the absence of Gadaffi does not make any difference to a sympathetic country in exile.

Delayed invitation for Libya in 2012 London Olympics, major furore starts

Is it justice to decline the attendance of Libyan athletes in the 2012 Olympic Games on the basis of the political chaos being witnessed by the country? Or, would it be a mistake to provide the tickets to Libyan Olympic Committee which is headed by Colonel Gadaffi’s son and risk the safety of the Games?

These two questions are literally haunting the British Government which has to bear the fact that 2012 Olympic Games have become a ‘PR Event‘. Just  as the Royal Wedding attracted millions of visitors, the Olypmic Games is going to be an even bigger event. The greater the event, the higher the responsibility that couples it.

Currently, the Libyan government is not welcomed at the 2012 Olympic Games.

‘Troubled waters for the IOC’

The International Olympic Committee (IOC) is definitely in troubled waters, as of now. To start with, it was founded by French pedagogue Pierre de Coubertin and includes 205 national countries in its list. in 2012, the games would be held in London. Sarcastically, one of the reasons for starting this international tournament was to foster peace and international communication.

Article 2 of Chapter One of the Olympic Charter states that the main motto of the tournament is to promote Olympism and uphold the ethics in sports, encourage participation and support the development of the sport.

Thus, IOC had no option but to provide tickets to the Libyan Olympic Committee which is headed by Colonel Gadaffi’s son Muhammad al-Gadaffi. Recently, the leaked news that Muhammad demanded for 1000 tickets through his personal connections irrespective of the fact that Britain and NATO are involved in bombing his own country, caused a major furore.

Also, the Britons themselves would not take this news with maturity, especially when ‘one million Britons missed out on the tickets’

‘IOC in its Defence’

The David Cameron Government has certainly started putting pressure on the IOC regarding the entire ‘tickets fiasco’. To start with, other Pariah countries such as Zimbabwe and Burma have also been invited.

No doubt, this would be a huge embarrasment for Britain if these countries attend the Olympic Games, especially taking into consideration that the innocent citizens in these nations are being butchered in uprisings.

Hence, IOC stated in its defence that it had to adopt the neutral stand so that the athletes do not suffer the brunt of the uprisings and tensions being inculcated in these nations with the Western super powers.

Jacques Rogge, the head of IOC had declined to comment on the case. Though, Mark Adams, the director has stated that IOC is waiting for the ‘clear situations’.

‘Safety’

More than anything, even the safety of the 2012 Olympics is a matter of great concern. Its a thought worth pondering that if the members of the Libyan Gadaffi regime enter into the British capital, would they avoid causing any kind of disaster?

And if there is a doomsday, would the IOC take the responsibility of it?

Also, would this responsibility bring back the loss of lives, if it happens, in any case.

One of the IOC spokesperson have stated that ‘no ticket has been printed or paid for, till now.’

In a nutshell, is Libya in the condition of supportings its own athletes and training them, at this very moment? I doubt if the conditions would change in the coming months and days, with the entire country being eroded with bombing.