Kofi Annan’s peace plan’s weakness inspite of Russia and China’s support

On 20th March, Russia stated that it was ready to support France’s presidential statement to UN, procuring Kofi Annan’s peace plan. Suddenly, both Russia and China who had shielded Syria by vetoing against 2 UN resolutions, have changed their alignment.

On the other hand, Kofi Annan who met Assad last month could not create immediate results. In fact, the terms and conditions of his diplomatic talk with Assad have not been made public. Well, I wonder if they would have anyways received more importance than the sudden email leads of Assad and his cosmopolitan wife. These emails storming the news media, perhaps have become a new face of ‘information propaganda war’.

Without meticulous analysis, a common man watching Syrian news is revealed that Assad has been getting guidance from Iran and his father-in-law in London to squash the rebels. Similar to it was the leaked Barbara Walter’s interview preparation when Assad was shown to learn how to give an interview infront of the American public.

Kofi Annan’s peace plan

Turning back to Kofi Annan’s peace plan, it includes 6 points like, both the sides should end violence, daily pauses for humanitarian assistance, release of political prisoners and access to journalists, freedom of assembly for protest and above all, the Syrian government and opposition should work in good faith. Well, the peace plan is a statement and not a resolution that can be legally binded. It portrays nothing but another feeble attempt from the side of West to conquer the Middle East.

‘Different dance for China and Russia’

What disturbs more is that both China and Russia are changing sides. This swift change was perhaps visible from the very time Moscow stated that it would not be granting asylum to Assad. Well, Russia cares for Tartus, its military and its arms trade. It was surprising that it was Tunisia’s president Moncef Marzouki who stated asylum for Assad, not just once but three times, eventually declining his offer. As far as China is concerned, it is anyways known for its ‘transactional diplomacy‘ which involves globe trotting all over the world with a fat checkbook in hand. Both Russia and China are quasi allies, after all, they both were communist blocs, hungry to export their revolutions, all around the world. Their security dilemma and hatred for the West has bought them closer, but how will this relationship affect Syria?

Lessons from Libya, Egypt and Tunisia

On the other hand, perhaps no one is learning from Libya. The NATO unilateralism in Libya has segmented the country between demands of federalism rising amid Benghazi and Tripoli. The Interim government has yet not pursued the war crimes. The Truth and Reconciliation commission is a farce, nothing else. Though, all TRCs have their own problems.

Like the one in South Africa only heard the grievances of 20,000 victims in the anti-aparthied struggle while others were simply forgotten. At the same time, even UN is not forcing these commissions to investigate human rights abuses.

While Egypt is now marching towards Presidential elections and Muslim Brotherhood has finally stated that they would have their own nominee, also. But the government is still ruled by the military and the parliament is just a ceremonial institution. This has made is very difficult for Egypt to obtain a $3.2 billion loan from the IMF.

Turning to Tunisia, the country seems to follow the Turkish model of democracy and rule of law, as it celebrated its Independence day from France in 1956 on 20th March. Tunisian presidents and foreign ministers are engrossed in talking about Libya, setting firms in Italy, petrol prices and welcoming Turkey’s President.

‘Syria’s revolution spills’

Also, Syria’s turmoil will not be limited to its own geopolitics. Lebanon, right now, who played the role of silent supporter for Syria, is facing the consequences. The shells fired in Syria has already started hitting the Lebanese border village of al-Qaa, where severally Syrian refugees are currently hiding. Similarly, the Libyan revolution did spill to Mali while the Egyptian to Sudan. Therefore, with the kind of geopolitical importance that Syria has, the chess board might utterly change, if its revolution gets exported.

‘Turkey and Syria: Is a military confrontation near?’

Meanwhile, in a very discreet manner, Turkey has started establishing a buffer zone at the Syrian side. 500 soldiers have already arrived to look over the current scenario and the migration of refugees. Well, this entire plan, without the knowledge or prior consent of the Damascus regime can lead to military confrontation if Turkey does not play the right cards. The entire situation puts Turkey in a very unconformable situation because it has to also seal its border from the influx of Kurdistan Worker’s Party (PKK) along with the Syrian refugees. Right from last year August, Turkey has been conducting air strikes against the Kurdish camps in Iraq. Few leaked reports have stated that Syrian regime employs Kurdish militia to maintain control over the northern regions- a reason well enough to anger the Turkish Armed Forces.

Russian Navy and Syria’s future?

Recently, there has also been another rumour that a Russian navy has landed a tanker in Syria on its Tartus port. It involves ‘anti-terrorism’ marines to further squash the rebels.  Well, the Damascus regime has currently negated the rumour. Nevertheless, just like the ‘Friends of Syria’ meeting in Tunisia last month, the Kofi Annan Peace Plan seems to fall flat. With Damascus regime being tight lipped, its even difficult to predict the consequences. The May elections predicted by Bashar al Assad would be the next important issue to look at.

Sharia Law and democratisation of Islam by Said Ferjani

In spite of the fact that ‘Sharia Law’ is not known by many of us, it somehow exudes unknown fear and abstract ambiguity. The law in itself is so technical and in-depth that even those who follow political Islamic news would find it quite difficult to decipher.

To erase this ignorance, Said Ferjani, from Ennada Party of Tunisia spoke about ‘Shariah Law and Democratization by Islam’

 Ferjani stated that the concept of democracy had initially evolved in Athens. Though, he did mention that every religion does follow certain principles of democracy, here and there. But it was not strictly practised as an ideology in Islam. Islam needs to make democracy more systematic.

Explaining on how Islam would direct a flawless system of governance, Ferjani mentioned three main pillars of Sharia Law. He narrated these below mentioned verses (translated in English) from Quran which further support his ideology.

1. Children of Adam have been honoured and diginified. They are all human beings. Every human is a value in himself. Its necessary to cherish humanity. So, Sharia law gives every human being the preference and hence, no injustice would be done to him.
2. God has created no particular order that should be followed to worship him. But in order to have the religious worship accepted, men have devised their own ways. Hence, the Sharia law gives importance to knowledge and freedom. These are the most important aspects needed to actually worship God. This is because God does not want people to worship him. He has his own angels. But without knowledge and freedom, nothing matters and even the most served thing would have no value.
3. The most beloved people amongst us are those who benefit other people and work for others. The great must always help the poor. Hence, people who are crooked are the enemies of Sharia itself.

As Sharia Law follows these principles it can never go wrong in governing its own people.

‘Friends of Syria’: Dictatorship of Futile International Diplomacy

The much hyped ‘Friends of Syria’ Conference taking place today in Tunisia is nothing but an embarrassment that US, EU and Arab League would remember.

More than 80 countries are participating in this international conference. Its only Lebanon, China and Russia who chose to ‘disassociate’ themselves from the event. Interestingly, the event is being funded by Qatar (hotel arrangements, travel tickets, bookings) while Tunisia maintains the administrative formality of executing it.

Moncef Marzouki, the President of Tunisia stated in an interview with Al Jazeera that he does not want military intervention in Syria. Syria would not be another Libya because events in this country have gone far more complex and intertwined. He once again urged the need to convince Russia to be supportive.

‘Too many cooks spoil the broth’

FOS itself is divided. Though the draft declaration is still being circulated, the communique states that they would not be supplying arms to Free Syrian Army and Syrian National Council.

While, members of the SNC who are currently in Tunisia have stated that it does not matter what is officially stated, they would eventually be armed.

This is one of the first and very apparent rift that exists in FOS. Well, its obvious to happen this way because such a high number of diplomatic representation at an international issue would have their own polemics, agendas and black propagandas.

‘Just to Impress Russia’

Few countries like Tunisia want to lower down the tone of the communique so that Russia can also be involved in their process, at a later stage. This idea, seems ‘Utopian’ and boorish enough for other Arabian countries who demand a military intervention at any cost (like Qatar).

So one can ponder the impact any declaration that FOS would eventually have if everything done is being customised for Russia or China? Just like the Thursday conference on Somalia in London, this entire FOS facade would be nothing but a posh and unnecessary expenditure for the diplomats, serving no purpose, what so ever.

‘Do not lecture Syria’

Ammar Waqqaf of the Syrian Social Club has stated that ‘If FOS wants humanitarian aid, one must talk directly to the Syrian government rather than lecturing it. Syria is self sufficient in terms of food and medical supply. It can take care of itself.’

He also states that it is assumed that the rebellions are concerned with the lives of the normal civilians, but in reality, they are not. In fact, the rebellions try to show that they have a control over the situation in respective district, but in reality, they are not even musketeers.

‘Differences with SNC’

As if the rifts in FOS were not enough, SNC too is facing opposition from the opposition. The National Coordination for Committee for Democratic Change (NCCDC) boycotted its presence in the FOS. They believe that FOS would be biased in praising SNC and there is not point in having any other Syrian Opposition group in the conference if such partiality continues.

NCCDC believes that it has more contacts in Syria and capability to use its soft power than SNC. In fact, it is based in Damascus itself. Also, NCCDC, chaired by Hassen Abdel Azim, is largely based inside Syria unlike SNC that is based in Istanbul.

Conclusion

If Karl Marx, Engels, Lenin and Guevera were still alive, they would have found nothing abysmal with the Syrian uprising. In fact, it includes every normative demand for being called a ‘revolution’ that has crossed the discursive, generative and paradigmatic process to eventuate into one.

Also, everything from international support, foreign intervention, ambitious yet abstract demands are present. Thomas Paine, perhaps would have credited American revolution of 1763 to be their godfather while Edmund Burke would have written another ‘Reflections’ to rebuke it.

But there’s one subtle point which they all thought but never wrote about. The point is, ‘Sometimes, revolutionaries themselves become part of international conspiracies.’

Romanticized Revolutions: Fall of dictators, justice and Syrian diaspora

When Thomas Friedman questions in his article, ‘Will the past bury the future in Arab world or will the future bury the past?’, he seems to naturally tussle with ‘how to define the Arab spring’. Very often, such definitions, do not contain the power of romanticizing the revolution but on the contrary, assimilate them in hollow, abstract units that lose their utter meaning.

‘Difference between Gadaffi, Ben Ali and Mubarak?

In this post, I would attempt to question on certain areas which have yet not been debated, vehemently at the international platform. The first one, remains on how do you describe justice? Justice of the fall of the dictators. In Tunisia and Egypt, both Ben Ali and Mubarak, respectively had not been butchered or assassinated like Gadaffi was. These two dictators, who are still alive, have been toppled and are undergoing trials which do not mention a concrete day of their doomsday in their respective country’s Supreme Courts. Since, the revolution was against their dictatorship, as they has become a murky face of ruthless domination, is subjecting them to court proceedings is what the common man wants? So, should they too, be subjected to be slaughtered by their rebels? On the other hand, the termination of Gadaffi’s lonely breath, meant something greater for Libya. In case, it actually did, for how long and for what kind of utilitarian good? One man’s food is another man’s poison- a proverb coming to life in the Middle Eastern politics. But it still remains a vacuum that were these two fates, one of legislative justice and the other of barbarian justice- the only two fates for these dictators?

‘Real and taught revolution’

Secondly, turning to the difference between a real revolution and a transported revolution.. What happened in Tunisia, sparked the entire Arab uprising. In a real revolution, the citizens know the reason they have to fight for. While, in a transported revolution, they are taught the reason why they should fight for. Like an infectious disease, the wrath mushroomed, each having the loophole of ‘unknown destinations’. It is said, ‘If you do not know where you have to go, then any road will take you there.’. This abstract philosophy can be actually seen in Egypt where people are left wondering, that did they participate in just another military coup or was it a real remonstration. In the taught revolution, there is imitation, lack of leadership and fragmentation. Just because your neighbor did it, you too, should do it. Yes, there was socio-economic disparity, modernized slavery, absence of freedom and expression. But at the same time, at least, there was a representative parliament with its own decorum that knew its ways. Right now, nations fighting for drafting their constitution under the majority of Islamic parties will definitely rely on religion as their new form of domination. So, where is the independence and idea of secularism that needed?

‘Syria’s tomorrow’

Thirdly, what would happen, if Syria too, faces the same destiny as Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. The dictator dies or is ousted, the public still fights against the interim government, more bloodshed and lack of rational unity. Very interestingly, the Arab League has started imposing sanctions on Syria, in my personal opinion, more to shove off the foreign intervention rather than to actually weaken the opposition against Assad. How much would this show off work, depends on time. And so does, the outcome of whatever happens beyond that.

Obama’s Ghost: withering Middle East economy and ambiguity

When Barack Obama talks about how his entire life, he was just wrestling with the ghost of ‘The Old Man’ (his first father), the pertinent fact remains- even though, his father is dead now, he, himself has become the first Black American President, unfortunately, the psychological fight has not terminated. He still thinks, he still fights.

It is difficult, to know a man, of his caliber, mettle and intellect to play a diplomatic mission in the Middle East. Yes, America does not want another Afghanistan. Yes, America did not even reveal how Osama was slaughtered. But here, in Middle East, it needs to. His administration can not keep playing imposing sanctions on Syria, or have secret talks with General Tantawi in Egypt or just write a letter in the New York Times with Cameron and Sarkozy for Libya.

‘No straight point with the MB’

No matter, how much America does discredit the Muslim Brotherhood (MB) for being originated from Al-Qaeda- these two are totally different institutions. Its another fact that several symbiotic revolutionaries from the Muslim Brotherhood have eventually caused terrorism but the organisation does not focus on just massive butchery like Al-Qaeda does. It does not focus on how Islam is portrayed by the West but how the Arabs can flawlessly adhere to what it means for them. Now, with very visible criticism against America in Iraq, the Muslim Brotherhood in Syria, Egypt and Jordan have actually stated that they donot appreciate western capitalism. So, what does Obama gain by those secret influential talks? His own identity of being a Muslim and yet a Christian causes a certain strange equilibrium to adhere to. So, the safest bet, I think, it to let the legislative elections start today and at the same time, fear. Fear of what would happen to American foreign policy and trade if NDP or even the Freedom and Justice Party comes into the parliament with majority. Though, the NDP offshoots might cling to America, the others, will not.

‘Gadaffi: Gone with the wind’

In Libya, the US policy was far too diplomatic. Just like Saddam, they created Gadaffi and now they banished him on the world stage, with not even the ending scripts having the western superpower’s name. Intelligent trick. Hillary Clinton stated no boots on the ground, a decision which was followed. To what degree did it save the millions invested by the EU and France on the ‘No-Fly-Zone’ remains unaccountable. For that matter, how many lives were saved. It was the finest subtle victory.

‘Syrian economy: not breathing’

With Syria, sanctions are being imposed. Obama administration are re-evoking all the sanctions on the Central Bank, the trade, travel of Assad and his colleagues, etc. The ‘crisis economy’ would shrink again, this time, with 6%, this year. But then, Syria has Lebanon and Iraq to support. For how long, no one knows. But does the Obama administration really think that such diplomatic measures would not affect the common population? Its the common man out in the streets of Damascus facing the music. If the dominoes affect started, it would be him to be brutally assaulted by it. Not Assad, not Obama.

My entire fear is that, Obama, with the enormous respect he demands, is creating several new ‘Old Men’ for him. He is creating new ghosts to fight, new regrets and nascent unkept promises that would haunt him. For if, he was just another Capitalist, he would never have had the first life long wrestle, in the very first place.

P.S: It is a must read ‘Obama’s autobiography- Dreams from My Father’. Creates the similar frustation that Arvind Adiga did in ‘The White Tiger’