Withdrawal of US troops in Afghanistan: A bird of ill Omen for India

After a decade, on 22nd June 2011, the current US President Barack Obama has announced the withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan.

A lot of speculation is being done about the various motives and outcomes of the withdrawal. And perhaps all this chaos, is not good news for India.

To start with, David Ignatius , the famous American journalist states, ‘The quick departure is a guarantee of failure. It risks repeating the mistake the United States made in the 1980s when, after pumping money and guns into Afghanistan to defeat the Soviet Union, America walked away — creating a power vacuum that was exploited by warlords and their regional patrons.’

This time, the power vacuum is being created for India. She would soon be exposed to a vulnerable spot by a Pakistan dominated neighbourhood and unfettered militancy. The precipitous withdrawal of the international forces rewinds the time back to Afghanistan of 1990s. It might turn worse this time. Especially when Al-Qaeda is all set to establish its existence after the death of Osama bin Laden and is engrossed in hunting for havens for executing jeopardising explosions.

Though, the deployment did not ensure that the instability in South Asia would be dealt with. But yes, the withdrawal certainly sounds like a modus operandi.

Harsh V Pant of Defence Studies Department from King’s College, London, states ‘New Delhi has been contemplating the impact of US withdrawal from Afghanistan. If the US left lock, stocks and barrel, India would be left to pick the pieces.’

In an attempt to mend ties with the post America Afghanistan, Indian PM Mr. Manmohan Singh also  pledged $500m in aid to Afghanistan, which comes on top of $1.5bn already promised to the war-torn country. Though, India is still the biggest regional donor to Afghanistan, a position which is highly appreciated by the Western superpowers, its high time when Mr. Singh should realise that aids and funding might not be the best way to combat extremism and terrorism.

‘Indian troops in Afghanistan’

Interestingly, there are around 1000 Indian paramilitary soldiers in Afghanistan. These forces belong to ‘Border Roads Organisation’ and ‘Indo-Tibetan Border Police‘. They play a vital role in safeguarding the large Indian consulates in Afghanistan. In fact, in 2010 itself, Home Minister P. Chidambaram had announced ‘India to send more troops to Afghanistan’.

Retired Indian Major General Ashok K. Mehta states in his Wall Street Journal ‘Pakistanis believe that Indians and Afghans, who share excellent relations, have a mutual interest against them and see India’s presence in Afghanistan as a threat.’

2006 onwards Pakistan has been frequently asking US to restrain the Indian presence in Afghanistan. So, the pull out of troops might prove to be an easy opportunity to finally cash upon the chance.

Unfortunately, the safety of Indian troops in Afghanistan is never talked about.

‘India’s future‘

No doubt, there is nothing heroic in stuffing pockets of enemies and reaching out for a global diplomatic stand. At the same time, there is no point in waiting for another attack on the Indian embassy in Kabul.

But perhaps, its would be wiser to realise who the real enemy is? Is it Taliban in Afghanistan or Pakistan? The answers wont come in a day or two. Till then, India should ‘wait and watch.’

Another Scar: Terrorist attack on Pakistan, conspiracy theories, role of India and US

The 18 hour long terrorist attack on the PNS Mehran airbase in Karachi leading to the loss of 2 Orion P-3C aircrafts, each valuing $36m is a jeopardising blow for Pakistan, especially after the Abbottabad raid of Osama bin Laden. The inferno not only proves to be a damage to installations and assets but it questions about security, safety and once again, death.

‘Attacks on symbols of defence and security create more panic as they convey a vivid impression that what about the common man if our defenders are unable to protect themselves.’ comments Pakistan Observer.

‘India’s Hand?’

One of the Pakistani newspapers have stated the utter dislike which India has for PC3 Orions and has already shot down one over the Rann of Kutch during a huge fight.  Also, the Orions are equipped with  Harpoon anti-missiles, which are a great challenge to India.

Though, Dawn reports that the Pakistani Taliban has confirmed their hand in this attack, once again, stating it as a brutual revenge to Osama’s death.

‘Insider’s hand?’

Security analyst Imtiaz Gul has stated that it ‘looks like an insider’s job‘. Especially, the mere fact analysis of the methodical tactics involved. Discrepancies on how the Islamist fighters manage to gain access is another debatable question which haunts the Pakistan security, especially after the PFA was unable to detect American raid on 1st May.

‘ America’s role‘

The PC3 Orions were American surveillance planes. Army leader Gen. Ashfaq Parvez Kayani has stated that US Senator John Kerry confirmed that US was not interested in seizing Pakistani’s nuclear weapons.

General Ashfaq wants to enhance the morale and dispel the impression of incompetence by re-doubling the efforts against terrorism.

Meanwhile, Naval Chief Adm. Nauman Bashir is being criticised for stating that there was no security lapse.

Though, Pakistan’s ability to safeguard its own vital assets and nuclear installations is getting damaged.

‘Meanwhile, in India.’

In India, as the trial as Tahawwur Hussain Rana who was accussed of helping plan the terror attacks in Mumbai is getting judged in a Chicago court, the main prosecution protagonist Headley has confessed that he had help from Pakistan’s spy. He even testified, exposing the role of Pakistan’s ISI.

‘ Another scar’

Pakistan has witnessed innumerable atrocities. The first one, in this manslaughter was seen in 2007 when the commando base witnessed a suicide attack. Next was 2009 Rawalpindi on a mosque on 4th December where 5 armed suicide attackers hurled fire on around 150 worshipers. The recent attack was when Pakistani Taliban Tehrik-e-Taliban carried out two bomb attacks in the Frontier Constabulary located in Charsadda district.

The real questions?

There are two main questions which are involved in the entire Karachi attack. The first one deals with, who did it? Though, Taliban has once again confirmed but it does not seem possible for the organisation to carry on an attack like this without the aid of any foreign hand. Secondly, who ever did it, did it, but till when will the innocent people of Pakistan face the fear and ignominy?

‘Pakistan can take care of her problems’

The entire butchery reminds me what Dr. Zaid Hamed , the political commentator had once said. ‘The western media states that the more you believe in conspiracy theories, the lesser you believe in facts. If Pakistan questions their deception and lies, it makes her a conspiracy theorist.’

In his interview, he had stated how he was not against any country but the ideology that governs it. The fact that even many citizens can be hard core fanatic believers in their country’s policy or might be against it, builds a nation.

Ultimately, he had voiced. ‘Pakistan can take care of her problem. But the Pakistani people have been lied for the past 60 years.’

Undoubtedly, the intrusion into Pakistan’s politics is because of its ideology, it being a Muslim nuclear state the physical location and the geopolitics involved.

He ultimately states why Pakistan is unable to mend her ways. ‘Its because the Russian, Chinese, Indians, Israelis, Arabs, Iranians and Americans are so involved with what is happening in Pakistan.’

For a spectator like me, India has the Mumbai attacks to heal herself with, Pakistan recently had the Karachi attack, US had the World Trade Centre, Afghanistan and Iraq had their own soil being infiltrated by soldiers, the middle east has continuous bloodshed.

But ultimately, what humanity has, no one knows. Perhaps, it does not have anything left, anymore.

Photo Credit: From Reuters