‘ In spite of the fact that the Arab people themselves felt considerable enthusiasm for pan Arab causes, the individual regimes were never able to agree on what kind of unity they should strive for and what institutional structures it would be based on,’ says Roger Owen, the famous British historian who has written several books on the Middle Eastern causes.
Adding another chapter to the ambiguity of the lost unity comes the sudden absence of Colonel Gadaffi after 42 years or dictatorship, further defining how Arab world politics has become a ‘double edged sword.’
No doubt, the termination of Gadaffi and the stronghold of rebels in Tripoli comes as a major boost to Anglo French forces, NATO and western intervention. But the fact remains that is Libya getting converted into another Iraq?
Though, the rebel minister of Libya, Mahmoud Shammam, declared that the chief military commanders have surrendered their guns, it can be clearly stated that the country is in ruins.
Anthony Cordesman, the representative from the Center for Strategic and International Studies has stated that though the Gadaffi regime has witnessed an end, it would be difficult for Libya to flower into democracy any time soon.
No doubt, it was essential for the Libyan revolution to gain independence, especially after taking into consideration the number of martyrs that have been produced, the investment done by the western countries and the level of international news created in this time frame.
But in the larger context, the picture is still deluded.
‘Economic crisis’
To start with, the power of a nation, its strength to bounce after suffering a shattering collapse, heavily depends on its economic potential. The ongoing uprising in Libya has certainly degraded the oil exporting capacity of the African nation. Unfortunately, Libya no longer can produce 1.6 million barrels per day. Also, it depends on how much time and trust would the international oil companies demand to invest again in Libya taking into consideration the kind of security situation existing in the region.
Though, at the same time, the European market, which has suffered more because of Libyan oil not being present in feasible quantity, it would, if intelligent enough, make most of this dire situation for its benefit and work on ending the jeopardy.
‘Workable government’
Secondly, the definition of the ‘workable government’ which needs to be established in Libya is another herculean task. If Libya craves to be another reflection of Egypt where the trial of surrendered dictator Mubarak has itself become a massive controversy, this form of short term euphoria does not matter. A proper constitution set across with elective procedures would not occur in chaos. At the same time, one needs to register that these rebels come from different states and hence have various different mentalities. To start with, the rebels from Tripoli function differently from the rebels from Benghazi. Hence, the concept of ‘unity in diversity’ would be impractical to attain so soon.
‘Humanitarian crisis’
Thirdly, Libya is undergoing a massive humanitarian crisis. Moussa Ibrahim, the spokesperson from the Libyan government revealed that currently 5000 people have been injured and 1300 are dead. Hundreds of civilians are present in the hospital for treatment. There is a stupendous scarcity of blood and oxygen. In such conditions, it would be another spectacle for Libya to stand strongly for its growth and development.
‘International assistance’
Fourthly and most importantly, who will help in healing Libya? The main foundations are definitely Nato, UN, European Union, Arab League and the African Union. US has clearly stated that it would, if it does, play an essential role in humanitarian aid of the country rather than sending boots on the ground. Also, the continuous condition questions how much more finance can these countries invest in Libya again after the ‘no fly zone’ already costing millions per day.
In a nutshell, the termination of Gadaffi to unknown shores does not make much of a concrete difference in the capacity building of the country against the fight. Yes, the one common enemy has been defeated but the real fight does not end with the surrender of a dictator. Libya needs to give importance to political pluralism and individual rights of every citizen who have fought for something they believed in. At the same time, the citizens should once again unite and delve on who the ‘enemy’ actually was.
Till then, the absence of Gadaffi does not make any difference to a sympathetic country in exile.
shubhdachaudhary 